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Mixed Signals on Eagerly Anticipated Private 5G Hockey Stick Growth

January 31, 2023

Private 5G networks are foundational technology to edge computing proliferation, and we’ve heard about superior capabilities of private 5G deployments from the industry for years. In 2015 the US government opened Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS), a 150 Mhz spectrum band that enabled organizations to establish private 5G networks with a caveat that they must be deployed with the proper security. This was a grand departure in the U.S. for spectrum allocations and brought to the table the opportunity to use the coming 5G network as a wireless solution where WiFi did not fit.  5G was seen as a superior technology due to the number of devices supported by each access point (AP) and for its superior signaling in high noise environments like factory floors where interference could make WiFi unreliable. 5G also offers soft handoff between APs to ensure lossless connectivity valued in industrial applications.

The past half decade has showcased incredible industry innovation in private 5G solutions and proof of concept testing with leading providers. However, the technology, like many communications network solutions, has been slow in gaining mass traction with enterprises. This past week we have seen some news that suggests that large growth is ahead supporting industry forecasts for up to 47% CAGR for private 5G networks through 2030. Nokia announced that they’ve seen a 50% increase in private 5G customer adoption QoQ and have more than 500 private 5G customers in their client base. Not to be left out, Ericsson also shared that sales are up 33%.

These industry stalwarts showing growing momentum give hope that the highlight anticipated hockey stick growth of private 5G is upon us. While these deployments are led from the US, Germany, UK, China and Japan, we are also seeing additional announcements of spectrum allocations for private 5G deployments across the world most recently in Spain and Norway opening the door for customer adoption in these countries.

The the value that was envisioned by industry architects years ago is also coming to fruition. An example is one of the first private 5G deployments in India where Apollo Hospitals is tapping its private 5G network to conduct AI guided colonoscopy procedures utilizing technology from Tech Mahindra and Airtel, a leading use case described by industry leaders during the development of this technology in its creation.

Still, macro-economic headwinds may stand in the way of a fait accompli of private 5G deployments. Verizon, for one, signaled it had miscalculated private 5G demand uptake last week as it provided its 2023 economic outlook, and industry softness in this space would fall in line with broader IT spending conservatism. As we look forward to next month’s Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona, I’ll be looking for more industry examples of successful broad scale deployment of private 5G networks, more news about additional spectrum allocations, and insight about new infrastructure innovation that delivers the performance, scale and security required across enhanced mobile broadband, massive internet of things and mission critical service private 5G use cases.

 

Private 5G networks are foundational technology to edge computing proliferation, and we’ve heard about superior capabilities of private 5G deployments from the industry for years. In 2015 the US government opened Citizens Broadband Radio Service (CBRS), a 150 Mhz spectrum band that enabled organizations to establish private 5G networks with a caveat that they must be deployed with the proper security. This was a grand departure in the U.S. for spectrum allocations and brought to the table the opportunity to use the coming 5G network as a wireless solution where WiFi did not fit.  5G was seen as a superior technology due to the number of devices supported by each access point (AP) and for its superior signaling in high noise environments like factory floors where interference could make WiFi unreliable. 5G also offers soft handoff between APs to ensure lossless connectivity valued in industrial applications.

The past half decade has showcased incredible industry innovation in private 5G solutions and proof of concept testing with leading providers. However, the technology, like many communications network solutions, has been slow in gaining mass traction with enterprises. This past week we have seen some news that suggests that large growth is ahead supporting industry forecasts for up to 47% CAGR for private 5G networks through 2030. Nokia announced that they’ve seen a 50% increase in private 5G customer adoption QoQ and have more than 500 private 5G customers in their client base. Not to be left out, Ericsson also shared that sales are up 33%.

These industry stalwarts showing growing momentum give hope that the highlight anticipated hockey stick growth of private 5G is upon us. While these deployments are led from the US, Germany, UK, China and Japan, we are also seeing additional announcements of spectrum allocations for private 5G deployments across the world most recently in Spain and Norway opening the door for customer adoption in these countries.

The the value that was envisioned by industry architects years ago is also coming to fruition. An example is one of the first private 5G deployments in India where Apollo Hospitals is tapping its private 5G network to conduct AI guided colonoscopy procedures utilizing technology from Tech Mahindra and Airtel, a leading use case described by industry leaders during the development of this technology in its creation.

Still, macro-economic headwinds may stand in the way of a fait accompli of private 5G deployments. Verizon, for one, signaled it had miscalculated private 5G demand uptake last week as it provided its 2023 economic outlook, and industry softness in this space would fall in line with broader IT spending conservatism. As we look forward to next month’s Mobile World Congress event in Barcelona, I’ll be looking for more industry examples of successful broad scale deployment of private 5G networks, more news about additional spectrum allocations, and insight about new infrastructure innovation that delivers the performance, scale and security required across enhanced mobile broadband, massive internet of things and mission critical service private 5G use cases.

 

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